College Betting

Ok, I know that I was betting Auburn just the other day against LSU, and they let me down bad. But I can’t let emotions get the better of me, even as a woman. Now it should be pretty obvious that the main reason I am backing them is because of the incredibly weak oposition the Tennessee Volunteers will be putting up.

While people betting on Auburn instead of the LSU on the last game were disapointed, the 26-21 score was pretty close to covering. This was not the case with Tennessee’s last game where the Gators devastated the Volunteers with a 30-6 wipeout. They were playing the ball as if it were small bingo balls, so much control and speed.

But why did Tennessee do so badly. Well, the main reason in my oppinion is that they are an especially weak team when playing against strong offense. And that is one quality Auburn has. Auburn’s offense on the otherhand, leaves much to be desired and they have honestly not shown any sign on improvement on that aspect.

I would hesitate to bet on this game is the line for Auburn was more then 6 points, but at this price I’m in. Goooooooooooooooo Tigers, I’m betting on you!

I normally don’t bet the NFL, since I know college football and that is what I am about. But this Sunday match between the Rams and the Buffalo Bills is just too tempting for me to pass up.
Now you are probably wondering; why on earth I would choose to bet the St. Luis Rams when the Buffalo Bills are the #1 for the AFC East division? I know how important being #1 for the AFC East division is. I mean, the New England patriots have dominated this division for over 11 years, and they are one of the best teams on the NFL. So why am I backing a weak team that is going against a team that has been playing its best game in over 15 years?

Well, there are a few reasons. One of the first is hunger to win. While betting the Buffalo Bills might seem the wisest idea, they are on a winning streak and are probably going to suffer from over confidence. On the other side, the Rams are down 0-3; they are absolutely desperate and will be playing everything they got.

Another reason is that the Rams are being underestimated and the +8 line that is on them is not really merited. I know, what you are thinking, the Rams have replaced their quarterback Marc Bulger for this Sunday’s game. So Trent Green will be the starting Ram’s quarterback, so he doesn’t know the team that well. That doesn’t matter. Now it may matter a little that he is almost 40, but he is an experienced and good player and IMO, anyone is better than Trent Green.

Saint Louis has also proven to be a team that is much better at home then on the road, so their home game advantage is even more important. So forgive me for my apparent lack of sanity, but I’m betting the Rams this Sunday. This will hopefull help me recuperate from my bad betting pick on LSU vs. Auburn.

Well, no sooner was I celebrating the $500 I won from the Notre Dame vs. Michigan game then I started to suffer the LSU vs. Auburn Game.

Auburn really let me down this Saturday and cost me $300. What a burn, when the score reached 17-14 thanks to Demetrius Byrd’s 22-yard touchdown, I felt safe; it was only half a point away from a push. But that Less Miles is a talented coach and dealt Auburn some real quality trick plays.

I must say LSU’s performance really deserved the victory they enjoyed. Oh well, off to number crunching with me, I must get at least two good picks for this weekend’s games.

Tata.

For over ten years, LSU has won the SEC West Championship on every odd-numbered year. The problem with that statistic is that 2008 is an even year, so statistically; they should lose this year and win the 2009 SEC West. But there is an old saying my pops told me; “Statistics lie and liars use statistics”.

So let’s look at this team and their real odds of winning, based on what this team can do, and not some handicapper superstition, which could actually work in our favor since this kind of statistic can unfairly push odds in the wrong direction.

They have a strong team, but they have heavy reliance on home field advantage. When that advantage is not present, historically, they fail. And at no time will this be put to the test in a more evident manner then this Saturday’s LSU vs Auburn game. The odds are in your favor, to be the underdog, with Auburn having a +2.5 point spread.

While LSU has a much better running offense then in 2005 when they lost to Auburn at home. But Auburn has a great defense, having held its opponents to a mere 53 rushing yards per game. I mean, in 2005 Auburn kicker John Vaughn missed five field goals, something LSU cannot expect to happen again.

Anyway, this dainty little handicapper has her money on Auburn, GO TIGERS! Grrrrrwwwrrrr

With the large amount of upsets that have happened in college football this start of season, you would think people would be flocking to betting underdogs and that lines would be un-competitive because of this. But this week’s Notre Dame - Michigan game seems to be pointing otherwise.

With the spread reaching double digits, betting Michigan is becoming very tempting. Now don’t get me wrong, I know they aren’t perfect and Notre Dame is a historical power house.

One of the main reasons the line is being set so high, is the public’s liking of the Irish’s QB Jimmy Claussen. While he did through 4 interceptions this year, he is not all that accustom to the defensive pressure of Mark Dantonio.

The fact that the Notre Dame Fighting Irish got to 2-0 by beating the Spartans, they can’t really expect Michigan to make the same fumbles.

One of the most important reasons I will be betting Michigan is the fact that they have the momentum to win.

That was the exact title of a letter sent to me by a fan. And after USC’s Saturday big win, I know many of us are asking the same questions. So let’s go over this and see why this particular handicapper doesn’t believe in betting the USC on a straight, although betting on them being the BCS Bowl Champions would be wise.

USC’s crushing victory on Ohio State this Saturday had many college betting fans reaping some juicy rewards. But this wasn’t exactly a surprise. In the last 6 games where USC and Ohio State go head to head, USC has won every time. What’s more, they have won 39 out of 40 of their last home games. This is understandable considering their talented and well organized team and the 90,000+ strong crowd that was roaring for them.

But there was something more this Saturday which really helped make the day for all those USC Trojan betting fans. Ohio was down their star tailback, Chris Wells (AKA Beanie). And although this didn’t hurt them that much, a few critical mistakes were made; Todd Boeckman had an errant throw which was intercepted and ended in a Trojans’ touchdown by Rey Maualuga. An Ohio touchdown was also nullified by a holding penalty.

So you must be asking, “why the hell this broad is telling me not to take a straight bet on USC on their next game?”. The answer is simple, female intuition if you will. These boys have had it easy, and have succeeded so far. But this has built their ego and their team has some young, green players, which are especially prone to falling for the ego effect of being a college football champion. I do believe they have a good chance of being the national champion. But with the amount of betting that will be placed on USC, if you are taking a straight, be careful with the lines. There is likely to be an upset around the corner for this team before they shape up and be the champions they can be.

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